The military landscape of Rakhine State, western Myanmar, has altered dramatically. The Arakan Army (AA) now controls approximately 90% of the region, following the rapid retreat of junta forces from both northern and coastal strongholds.
Simultaneously, neighbouring Bangladesh has undergone political turbulence. On 5 August, amid mass public dissent, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina reportedly sought refuge in India. In the ensuing power vacuum, the proposal of a “humanitarian corridor” into Rakhine via Bangladesh has drawn intense interest—and suspicion.
A key question has resurfaced:
Is the United States planning a proxy war in Myanmar?
While the notion circulates widely across digital platforms, experts are sceptical and find the claims unsubstantiated.
Where the Proxy War Theory Emerged
Several recent developments have served as catalysts for renewed speculation:
| Event | Implication |
| Closer India–Arakan Army ties | Strategic engagement raises eyebrows, particularly at the intelligence level. |
| Humanitarian corridor discussions | Some interpret this as a possible guise for military intervention. |
The theory has gained traction through unverified online sources: fringe blogs, YouTube channels, and nationalist forums. These platforms promote the idea that the West, led by the U.S., is orchestrating a military campaign through proxies in Myanmar to undermine Chinese interests.
What the Claims Say
The core allegation is that Washington, with support from regional allies, seeks to:
- Disrupt China’s Belt and Road Initiative, particularly the economic corridor linking Yunnan to Kyaukpyu Port.
- Utilise Bangladesh as an operational base, with involvement from Turkey, India, Rohingya factions, and Western agencies.
Common (but dubious) claims include:
| Alleged Activity | Details |
| Turkish drone base | Said to be under construction in Cox’s Bazar to facilitate strikes inside Myanmar. |
| Foreign mercenaries | Reports suggest thousands of British and American fighters entering Rakhine via Mizoram. |
| New buffer states | Assertions that the U.S. is supporting the creation of autonomous regions to limit Chinese access. |
Reality Check: Where’s the Evidence?
To date, there is no credible evidence to support these allegations.
The Lowy Institute, a respected Australian think tank, has reviewed these claims and concluded they are based on conjecture, not fact. Its analysis states:
“These stories are speculative at best and sensational at worst. There is no indication of U.S. military engagement or coordination with armed groups in Myanmar.”
Other sources, such as the Democratic Voice of Burma, have challenged these narratives, yet the mainstream media remains largely silent.
Analyst View: Why the Claims Fall Apart
According to the Lowy Institute and independent analysts:
- The U.S. maintains no military footprint in the region capable of sustaining such a campaign.
- There has been no delivery of lethal aid to anti-junta forces from any Western state.
- The U.S. continues to support diplomatic isolation and sanctions, not military confrontation.
Additionally, executing such covert operations in Myanmar’s terrain, under current geopolitical conditions, would be immensely difficult to conceal.
Academic Observations
Andrew Selth, a regional expert with the Griffith Asia Institute, notes that:
“Myanmar is a fertile ground for disinformation. In the absence of independent reporting, conspiracy theories flourish.”
Selth emphasises that various actors—both local and international—may intentionally propagate false narratives to destabilise relations among global powers or bolster domestic agendas.
The Role of the United States Post-Coup
Since the 2021 military coup, the U.S. and other Western countries have taken a firm stance against the junta. However:
- Their assistance to resistance groups has been limited to diplomatic and humanitarian support.
- There is no documented case of Western countries arming or financing ethnic militias such as the Arakan Army.
Geopolitical Motives and Misinterpretation
The claim that the U.S. is leveraging ethnic armed groups to contain China may appeal to geopolitical cynicism, but does not reflect current policy reality.
In fact, a report by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) highlights that:
- The conflict in Myanmar remains an internal civil war.
- The junta’s opponents have received no substantial external military support.
- Western disengagement has arguably enabled China to expand its influence in Naypyidaw, not the reverse.
Final Assessment
The proxy war narrative lacks factual grounding. What we are seeing instead is the politicisation of humanitarian corridors, misinformation about foreign involvement, and the opportunistic exploitation of Myanmar’s media vacuum.
The Lowy Institute’s findings urge caution:
“These rumours serve to distract from the real issues and mislead public understanding of a highly complex conflict.”